Atlanta Falcons at Carolina Panthers
Spread: Atlanta Falcons -2.5 (MGM Mirage)
O/U: 42 points
Pick Against The Spread: Carolina Panthers/Under
Analysis: The Falcons offense is ranked 7th in YPG, but are 15th in the league in scoring at 21.9 ppg. Carolina Panthers defense is 2nd in total yardage (3rd passing and 4th rushing), and are allowing 17.8 ppg, 4th in the league. The Falcons offense has not been great the past four weeks, and the team is 1-3 overall. The Panthers will shut down the Falcons rushing attack putting all the pressure on Matt Ryan who will have his work cut out for him against a team that just shut down Tampa Bay’s top flight offense. Ryan has a tendency to throw picks and has thrown 6 picks in the Falcons 7 games this year. It will be a low scoring game due to the Panthers stout defense. Turnover differential favors the Falcons (-5 compared to -7) in this matchup, but both teams have more giveaways than takeaways. The Panthers pull off another ugly victory at home against the under-performing Falcons. Prediction: 20-16, Panthers come out on top.
Los Angeles Rams at New York Giants
Spread: Los Angeles Rams -4 (MGM Mirage)
O/U: 42 points
Pick Against The Spread: Los Angeles Rams/Over
Analysis: The Los Angeles Rams are 2nd in the league in scoring at 30.3 ppg while the Giants are 3rd from last at 16 ppg. Defensively, LAR gives up 19.7 ppg compared to 22.3 for the NYG. The Rams have the 26th ranked rush defense in the league which should have holes to run through for Orleans Darkwa, who ran for 117 yards two weeks ago against Denver. The Rams defense yardage wise are 15th, and will play well against a bad Giants offense. The Rams will have a good game offensively against this under-performing unit. The Rams 9th ranked pass defense will be enough to stop Eli Manning and the Giants receivers. The teams are tied for 16th in the league with a +/-0 turnover differential. Prediction: 27-17 Rams win in New York.
Detroit Lions at Green Bay Packers
Spread: Detroit Lions -2 (MGM Mirage)
O/U: 43.5 points
Pick Against The Spread: Detroit Lions/Under
Analysis: Brett Hundley has a 1:4 TD:INT ratio. Aaron Jones has been fantastic since taking over lead back duties, but the Lions have the 6th ranked rush defense. The Lions held Le’Veon Bell to 3 YPC and 76 rushing yards last week. The Packers have a lot of weapons on offense, so if Hundley improved over the team’s bye week, maybe the Packers play well. Detroit is also 4th in league with a +7 turnover differential. The Lions will be able to put up enough points against the Packers 23rd ranked defense in total yardage (16th passing and 27th rushing). Matthew Stafford is only 3-10 (1-6 in Green Bay) against the Packers, but without Aaron Rodgers, Stafford will get an important victory for his team. Prediction: 23-17 Stafford picks up the win in Green Bay.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New Orleans Saints
Spread: New Orleans Saints -7 (MGM Mirage)
O/U: 52.5 points
Pick Against The Spread: New Orleans Saints/Under
Analysis: New Orleans is tied for 8th in the league with a +4 turnover differential, and the Bucs are 21st at -2. Ingram and Brees have been on a roll the past few weeks, and the Bucs 30th ranked defense (17th rushing and 29th passing) won’t be able to contain the Saints 2nd ranked overall offense. Carolina’s defense is much better than the Saints, but the Saints 17th ranked pass defense can slow down Jameis Winston and Co. like the Panthers did with the help of a couple turnovers. New Orleans is 12th in the league in scoring defense with 20.7 ppg. Tampa Bay is 24th giving up 24 ppg. The New Orleans offense is 6th in the league in scoring at 27.3, and the Bucs are 19th in scoring at 21.1. The Bucs get a lot of yards (5th in yardage in the league), but can’t score. Working in favor of the Bucs is that Stafford, Brady, and Bradford have all thrown for 300+ yards and 3 TDs against the Saints defense. Saints seem to have figured things out defensively the past two weeks, and will keep it rolling against the struggling Bucs offense. It will be an offensive battle but will come in just under the O/U of 52.5. Prediction: 30-20, Brees leads the Saints to 6 wins in a row.
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