Miami Dolphins at Baltimore Ravens
Pick: Baltimore Ravens
Analysis: The Dolphins offense is ranked 32nd in the league, and the Ravens offense is ranked 31st. Matt Moore is going to face the 5th ranked passing defense in the league. Miami’s defense is solid coming in at 12th overall in the league, but their offense has struggled against average and better teams this year. This will be a matchup between two struggling teams, so I am picking the home team to pull it out.
Minnesota Vikings at Cleveland Browns
Pick: Minnesota Vikings
Analysis: The Browns will be without their 2017 #1 overall pick Myles Garrett and Joe Thomas who played in over 10,000 consecutive snaps. The Vikings will be missing Anderson Sendejo, their starting strong safety due to suspension but may have Stefon Diggs back, their #1 wideout who practiced fully Thursday and Friday. The Vikings have the 12th ranked offense (9th rushing and 15th passing) and 4th ranked defense (3rd rushing and 12th passing). Cleveland’s offense is ranked 25th and their defense comes in at 9th in total yardage allowed. With the injuries, a terrible overall offense, and on a neutral field in London the Browns stay winless through week 8.
Oakland Raiders at Buffalo Bills
Pick: Oakland Raiders
Analysis: I had the Bills winning this game until they traded Marcell Dareus to the Jacksonville Jaguars this week for a 6th round pick. Yes, he hasn’t been the same player as the one who has been to the Pro Bowl twice, but the message it sends to the other players in the locker room has to have a negative impact. The Bill first-year GM, Brandon Beane, has been trying to tank since before the season started through multiple trades for future draft picks. Marcell Dareus was still an impact starter and the trade will have negative ramifications on the Bills 6th ranked rushing defense. The trade along with having the league’s 26th ranked pass defense will do this team in versus a high powered offense. Watch out for Jalen Richard who will be starting for the suspended Marshawn Lynch. He has averaged 5.5 YPC in limited action over two years, and is also a receiving threat out of the backfield with 41 career receptions for 347 yards over 23 games. He might break out in this one and take over as the new Raiders lead back with Marshawn playing poorly so far this season.
Indianapolis Colts at Cincinnati Bengals
Pick: Cincinnati Bengals
Analysis: The Indianapolis Colts’ defense is bad. 31st in the league bad. Combine that with a porous offense and you see why they have gone 1-3 over their past 4 games while being outscored 132-66. The Colts are giving up an average of 33 points per game over that span, and their win was a nailbiter at home against the 49ers. Cincinnati hasn’t played well to start the year, but have gone 2-1 over their last 3. The Bengals also boast the league’s 5th best defensive unit. Look for their offense to pick it up against the Colts 31st ranked defense, and pull of the win at home.
Los Angeles Chargers at New England Patriots
Pick: New England Patriots
Analysis: The Chargers have been a popular upset pick by a lot of people this week, but I’m not seeing it. Both teams are coming off impressive wins, Chargers beat the Broncos 21-0 while the Patriots beat the Falcons 23-7. The Patriots offense is #1 overall, and they get the to play the league’s worst rush defense this week. The Chargers have been good against the pass, 6th overall, but we will see how it holds up in Foxboro against Tom Brady. Losing Dont’a Hightower out of the middle of the Patriots defense may have a big impact, but it looks like the unit has figured things out over the past 3 weeks, giving up 12.67 points per game in 3 straight wins. We will see if that strong defensive play holds up without Hightower.
Chicago Bears at New Orleans Saints
Pick: New Orleans Saints
Analysis: The Saints have won four straight against winning teams, and the offense is 4th in total yardage in the NFL. The Saints offense is at full strength, and the Bears 30th ranked offense will not be able to keep up. Mark Ingram has been next level since AP was traded away. Jordan Howard has been great for the Bears, and their defense comes in at 7th overall in the league. The Bears have a chance to keep it close if Jordan Howard has a big day and their defense can slow the Saints offense down. In the end though Drew Brees and Mark Ingram will do enough to win this one.
Atlanta Falcons at New York Jets
Pick: Atlanta Falcons
Analysis: The Falcons had a bad offensive week against the Patriots league worst defense. The Falcons have the league’s 7th ranked offense and I don’t think they will be kept in check by the Jets 20th ranked defense. Devonta Freeman and Matt Ryan will show up in this one to pull out the victory over the Jets. The New York Jets will be without their starting right defensive end Muhammad Wilkerson (2015 Pro Bowler) and Buster Skrine their #1 cornerback. The defensive injuries will make it even more difficult to stop the Falcons potent offense. The Falcons are entering a must win situation after dropping their last 3 games by a combined 66-41. I think they get back on track against a surprisingly decent Jets team that has played above their talent level so far this season.
San Francisco 49ers at Philadelphia Eagles
Pick: Philadelphia Eagles
Analysis: The Eagles have won 5 games in a row and are 6-1 on the year. The 49ers on the other hand have lost all of their 7 games this season. The Eagles have the league’s 5th ranked offense, and the league’s #1 ranked rush defense. The 49ers only weapon on offense is Carlos Hyde (sorry Pierre Garcon but you don’t have a QB), and he will be running up against a wall on Sunday. The 49ers rookie QB, CJ Beathard, will not go into Philly and get his first career win. The Eagles offense will take advantage of the 49ers 28th ranked overall defense, 30th rushing and 25th against the pass. The 49ers got blown up by the Dallas Cowboys last week in San Fran, and now they get the juggernaut of the NFC in Philadelphia.
Carolina Panthers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Pick: Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Analysis: The Panthers got shut down in Chicago last week, and now they travel to Tampa Bay. Cam Newton has more interceptions than touchdown passes, Jonathon Stewart is averaging 3 YPC and Christian McCaffrey is averaging 2.5 YPC. The Panther’s are 2-3 over their last 5 games (2 straight losses) giving up 26.6 ppg while averaging 19.8 ppg on offense. The Panthers defense ranks 4th overall in yardage though. The Bucs have lost 3 in a row by 5 points or less. The Bucs have the 30th ranked defense in the league, and the league’s 3rd ranked offense, 1st in passing. Doug Martin has improved the Bucs rushing offense after missing the first 3 games with a suspension. I think the Bucs offense outshines the Panthers defense in this one to pull off a close win at home.
Houston Texans at Seattle Seahawks
Pick: Seattle Seahawks
Analysis: The Seattle Seahawks are 2-0 at home this year, and Seattle’s 12th man is the loudest in the game. The rookie Deshaun Watson will struggle in this environment. In yardage per game the rankings are close: Seattle has the 13th ranked offense and the Texans are 14th, and on defense the Seahawks are 8th versus the Texans at 11th. The Seahawks have won four out of their last five while the Texans have gone 3-2. Over the past two weeks Seattle has won by a total of 86-35. They have figured out the offense and the defense has looked strong. Houston is coming out of a bye week which should help their chances, but its’ hard to prepare for Seattle’s 12th man. Seattle’s winning streak will continue this week.
Dallas Cowboys at Washington Redskins
Pick: Dallas Cowboys
Analysis: This game should be a shootout. The Cowboys 6th ranked offense versus the Redskins 7th ranked offense. The Cowboys defense was much better with Sean Lee back in the lineup this past week against the 49ers. Dallas’ run defense still isn’t great but running the ball isn’t the Redskins strength. The Cowboys offense is too balanced with too many weapons. It will be a battle in Washington, but the Cowboys will pull it out with Zeke and Dak leading the way. The Redskins have a laundry list of injuries, and the Cowboys are coming in pretty healthy besides the injury to Dan Bailey. I don’t think they miss him in this one, dem boys for the win.
Pittsburgh Steelers at Detroit Lions
Pick: Pittsburgh Steelers
Analysis: The Steelers are 3-1 on the road this year and have won 2 in a row. Detroit is 1-2 at home and have lost 2 in a row overall. The Steelers are trending up and Detroit is trending down. The Steelers have averaged 20.75 ppg on the road and allowed 15.75 ppg. The Detroit Lions are coming off a game where they gave up 52 points to the Saints, and the defense looked broken against a good offense. The Steelers have too much firepower on offense, and they have the #1 passing defense as well. It will be close with Detroit at home, but the Steelers will pull out the win.
Denver Broncos at Kansas City Chiefs
Pick: Kansas City Chiefs
Analysis: Both teams have lost two in a row coming into this one. Denver has lost by a combined 44-10 over the past two weeks while Kansas City has lost by a combined 50-43. The big matchup here is Kansas City’s 2nd total offense versus Denver’s top ranked defense. Denver’s defense also has Shane Ray coming back from IR to start in this one, but Denver will be without starting tackle Donald Stephenson and may be without Emmanuel Sanders and Derek Wolfe for another week. For KC, Justin Houston’s knee is bothering him but he should play. They may also be missing Laurent Duvernay-Tardif, their starting right guard, and of course two starters in the secondary, Steven Nelson and Eric Berry, are gone on IR. Steven Nelson should return at some point this season though. Kansas City has been much better overall this year and will win at home against their division rival to get back on track for the year.
Photo cred: http://www.whiteman.af.mil/News/Photos/igphoto/2000199635/ (Found via Creative Commons)
Lemonade Tribe 