Overall Record: 12-3
Week 7 was a good week.
Kansas City Chiefs at Oakland Raiders
Pick: Kansas City Chiefs (Incorrect 0-1)
Result: Kansas City Chiefs, 30 – Oakland Raiders, 31
Analysis: This game was a battle of the QBs. Alex Smith went off for 342 yards and 3 TDs, and Derek Carr went for 417 yards and 3 TDs. The Raiders had more total offense with 505 total yards and more first downs with 32 compared to the Chiefs who had 425 total yards and 19 first downs. Penalties overall were close to even, but one big difference was the Raiders had 6 penalties that gave them a first down. That’s a momentum killer for any defense. Overall, I’m not surprised by this outcome, Kansas City is down two starters in the secondary (Eric Berry, SS and Steven Nelson, CB). As a Chiefs fan I know that they struggle against good QBs. Ben Roethlisberger has a career record of 7-1 against the Chiefs, and Peyton Manning’s career record was even better at 11-1 against the Chiefs and the list goes on. Derek Carr hadn’t beaten the Chiefs yet, but he was due. Over the years Kansas City has been great at beating teams that are average or worse without legitimate QBs, but good teams with a QB they usually struggle with (Beating Tom Brady in Week 1 was probably a fluke #sorrynotsorry).
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Buffalo Bills
Pick: Buffalo Bills (Correct 1-1)
Result: Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 27 – Buffalo Bills, 30
Analysis: The Buffalo Bills relied on the run game with LeSean McCoy leading the way to rack up 173 total rushing yards for 5.3 yards per attempt versus Tampa Bay who ran for 69 yards at 2.8 yards per carry. Buffalo won the turnover battle with 1 (a fumble) to Tampa Bay’s 3 (1 Interception 2 fumbles lost out of 6 fumbles total). Even with a big game from Jameis Winston (384 yards and 3 TDs) in the end Tampa Bay couldn’t overcome the turnovers.
Carolina Panthers at Chicago Bears
Pick: Carolina Panthers (Incorrect 1-2)
Result: Carolina Panthers, 3 – Chicago Bears, 17
Analysis: The Carolina Panthers were bad. Cam Newton threw 2 interceptions and had a fumble. The difference in this game was Eddie Jackson of the Bears defense. One of the interceptions and the fumble were both returned for touchdowns by Eddie Jackson, the MVP of this game. Carolina lost by two touchdowns in a game where there defense only gave up 5 first downs and 153 total yards. You cannot lose a game with a defensive performance like that, but wait… the Panthers found a way.
Tennessee Titans at Cleveland Browns
Pick: Tennessee Titans (Correct 2-2)
Result: Tennessee Titans, 12 – Cleveland Browns, 9 (OT)
Analysis: An ugly game by both teams. The Browns had 3 total interceptions between 2 different QBs. Both teams have top 10 rush defenses (Titans 10th allowing 100 YPG and Browns 5th allowing 83 YPG). The Titans ran for 80 yards and the Browns ran for 63 with both teams averaging 2.5 YPC. Titans won the game of turnovers with 1 vs 3 by the Browns. Neither team could take advantage of the other teams middle of the pack pass defense (16th ranked for the Browns and 18th for the Titans) leading to a close, ugly game. In games like this if you can win the turnover battle you normally come out on top and that is what the Titans did in OT.
New Orleans Saints at Green Bay Packers
Pick: New Orleans Saints (Correct 3-2)
Result: New Orleans Saints, 26 – Green Bay Packers, 17
Analysis: The final score isn’t indicative of how close this one was for most of the game. Four lead changes throughout the game made this one fun to watch. Brett Hundley couldn’t get anything going through the air completing 12 of 25 passes for 85 yards, and they were still only down 2 until 4:55 left in the 4th quarter. Two interceptions by Drew Brees, and Aaron Jones going off for 131 yards at 7.7 YPC almost worked for the Packers who had the lead 17-16 early in the 4th quarter. over the final 10:30 of the game, Drew Brees does what he does and put them in scoring position twice to put up 10 points to put the Packers away.
Jacksonville Jaguars at Indianapolis Colts
Pick: Jacksonville Jaguars (Correct 4-2)
Result: Jacksonville Jaguars, 27 – Indianapolis Colts, 0
Analysis: The Colts are garbage. Blake Bortles had a great day with 330 yards and 1 touchdown, and TJ Yeldon starting in place of Leonard Fournette went off for 122 yards on only 9 carries. The shutout was even more embarrassing for the Colts because they had zero turnovers versus two for the Jags. The Colts O-line was dominated by the Jags defense giving up 10 sacks that resulted in a loss of 64 total yards.
Los Angeles Rams at Arizona Cardinals
Pick: Los Angeles Rams (Correct 5-2)
Result: Los Angeles Rams, 33 – Arizona Cardinals, 0
Analysis: This game epitomizes the fortune of these two teams this year, and how things have changed for both of them. LA has risen from the NFL’s basement this year to be competitive while Arizona has tanked while losing their starting running back and quarterback to injuries. Even worse news for the Cardinals, Adrian Peterson ran 11 times for 21 yards while Drew Stanton completed 5 of 14 passes for 66 yards with an interception after coming in for the injured Carson Palmer. Good luck with that duo moving forward Cardinals fans. Gurley had another good game with 106 rushing yards, a touchdown, and 154 total yards. The Rams could be competitive come playoff time if the young squad continues to improve on their 12th ranked offense and 11th ranked defense.
New York Jets at Miami Dolphins
Pick: Miami Dolphins (Correct 6-2)
Result: New York Jets, 28 – Miami Dolphins, 31
Analysis: The Jets had this game in the bag leading 28-14 early in the 4th quarter, but then Matt Moore threw two touchdowns to Kenny Stills and lead the team for a field goal with 22 seconds left on the clock. It’s crazy to think that the Dolphins’ Jay Ajayi can get bottled up for 51 yards on 23 carries, and they would put up 31 points with four touchdown passes between two QBs but that’s what happened. Bilal Powell and Matt Forte were effective for the Jets on the ground totaling 84 yards, and were the top two individual receivers on the team totaling 81 yards together. It’ll be a long year for the Jets if the likes of Matt Moore and Jay Cutler light up your defense though.
Baltimore Ravens at Minnesota Vikings
Pick: Minnesota Vikings (7-2)
Result: Baltimore Ravens, 16 – Minnesota Vikings, 24
Analysis: The Viking’s running backs were the difference in this one. Latavius Murray went for 113 yards on 18 carries while Jerick Mckinnon added 57 total yards. That is the Vikings formula for winning, especially while Stefon Diggs is out with an ankle injury. The Ravens lack a lead back who can consistently run the ball well, and Flacco looked pedestrian in this one. Luckily their kicker, Justin Tucker, has one of if not the best legs in the NFL hitting field goals of 48, 57, and 47 to keep their putrid offense alive in this one.
Dallas Cowboys at San Francisco 49ers
Pick: Dallas Cowboys (Correct 8-2)
Result: Dallas Cowboys, 40 – San Francisco 49ers, 10
Analysis: Cowboys dominated a bad 49ers team who was starting CJ Beathard, a rookie QB. Both team’s running backs were productive yards per carry wise with Zeke Elliot blowing up for 147 yards (5.7 YPC) on 26 rushes with 2 touchdowns against Hyde’s 14 rushes for 68 yards (4.9 YPC) . Zeke added a huge 72 yard reception for a touchdown as well. Dak Prescott was also highly effective throwing 3 touchdowns and 234 yards completing 64% of his passes. The Cowboys used 3 turnovers from the 49ers to take care of business on the road.
Seattle Seahawks at New York Giants
Pick: Seattle Seahawks (Correct 9-2)
Result: Seattle Seahawks, 24 – New York Giants, 7
Analysis: The Giants are bad, and they are not afraid to show it. Eli Manning went 19 of 39 for 134 yards. Russell Wilson dominated the 27th ranked passing defense of the Giants throwing for 3 touchdowns and 334 yards. The Giants lack of success is another example of why you can’t ride signing free agents to greatness. (2011 and 2012 Philadelphia Eagles anyone?)
Cincinnati Bengals at Pittsburgh Steelers
Pick: Pittsburgh Steelers (Correct 10-2)
Result: Cincinnati Bengals, 14 – Pittsburgh Steelers, 29
Analysis: Le’Veon Bell went for 192 total yards and Antonio Brown went for 65 yards and a touchdown. Big Ben totaled 224 total yards and 2 TDs, and their offense had zero turnovers. When the Steeler’s offense is working they’re hard to beat especially when you (Andy Dalton) complete two passes to Steeler’s defense. Overall the Steelers had 420 total yards of offense against Cincinnati’s 5th ranked defense while the Bengals only compiled 179 total yards against the Steeler’s 2nd ranked defense. The Steelers look like real contenders with the #1 ranked pass defense (147 YPG) and #2 defense in total yardage.
Denver Broncos at San Diego Chargers
Pick: Denver Broncos (Incorrect 10-3)
Result: Denver Broncos, 0 – San Diego Chargers, 21
Analysis: This was the Broncos first shutout loss in 25 years. Even with Melvin Gordon getting bottled up for 38 rushing yards and Phillip Rivers only throwing for 183 yards the Chargers found a way to win. 2 TDs through the air and a punt return for a TD by Travis Benjamin were far more than necessary against the Broncos and their 3 turnovers (2 fumbles and 1 interception). The Broncos actually outgained the Chargers 251-242 and lead in time of possession. Broncos defense is #1 in total yardage which will keep them in any game, but their offense has to cut out the turnovers to win games.
Atlanta Falcons at New England Patriots
Pick: New England Patriots (Correct 11-3)
Result: Atlanta Falcons, 7 – New England Patriots, 23
Analysis: This game was not as exciting as last year’s Super Bowl indicated it would be. Fun fact: I won a $20 bet that the Patriots would come back from the 28-7 deficit last year. I’m not saying having the 7th ranked offense is bad, but why did the Falcons think Steve Sarkisian was qualified to run the offense? He single-handedly lost the championship game for Alabama (yes, I 100% believe Lane Kiffin would have lead Bama to the win over Clemson). The Patriots 32nd ranked defense gave up 343 total yards but held the Falcons to only 7 points. If this defense can play bend but don’t break football like this moving forward they might be serious contenders with their 1st ranked offense. That will be harder now after losing Dont’a Hightower out of the middle of that D for the year though.
Washington Redskins at Philadelphia Eagles
Pick: Philadelphia Eagles (Correct 12-3)
Result: Washington Redskins, 24 – Philadelphia Eagles, 34
Analysis: Both quarterbacks were great, but both teams displayed their weaknesses in each’s respective run game. With both teams being in the top 8 of total offense in the league (Redskins 6th and Eagles at 8th) this game was set-up for an offensive battle. Washington never had the lead in this one and was down by 17 halfway through the 4th quarter. Without a garbage time touchdown by Kirk Cousins, this game was a blowout. The Eagles completely outclassed the Redskins, and the Eagle’s 1st ranked run defense was on display holding the Redskins to 75 total rushing yards. The Redskins actually won time of possession and the turnover battle in this one with 2 turnovers versus the Eagles 3, but couldn’t do enough with them to win.
Photo cred: https://vimeo.com/184104086 ( found via Creative Commons)
Lemonade Tribe 